OTH Summer School 2018

Summer University 2018 – Strategic Intelligence Analysis

Short Description
During the Summer University on “Strategic Intelligence Analysis” IMSISS students learnt about processes and methods in the field of security and strategic intelligence analysis studies. This programme is run as a certificate course of the “International Masters in Security, Intelligence & Strategic Studies” in cooperation with the University of Glasgow, Charles University Prague and Dublin City University. The Summer University was organised by the Faculty of General Sciences and Microsystems Engineering, as well as the Center for Further Education and Knowledge Management (ZWW) of OTH Regensburg.

From 6th to 17th August 2018


Subject Matter Experts
– Prof. Dr. Markus Bresinsky coordinated the course and provided lectures related to Big Data and Data Mining

– Lt. Colonel of the Bundeswehr Georg Fuchs provided lectures related to the Strategic Intelligence Analytical Techniques and Tactical Intelligence Analysis

– Experts of the International Affairs Research Group (MEIA Research)

Course Aims

The lectures and the project work were based on:

  • Development of critical thinking, an important skill that every intelligence analyst should acquire in order to overcome different biases and mindsets that badly impact on the intelligence analysis
  • Teaching structured intelligence analysis techniques, such as NATO PMESII structure; Decomposition & Visualisation; Idea and Hypothesis Generation; Indicators and Scenarios Development; Assessment of Cause and Effect
  • Challenging the analysis in order to assess their validity with the adoption of the Red Team and Devil’s Advocate Analytical Methods
  • Training on the use of specific software and tools for the processes of intelligence collection, analysis and visualisation
  • Development of an independent project related to the strategic intelligence analysis
  • Development of strategic forecasting scenarios for the next 5 years related to real case studies, such as the Libyan and Syrian crisis
  • Consultation and decision support

Visit to the MEIA Research Group in Munich
A visit to MEIA’s The Middle East and International Affairs Research Group in Munich took place the 11th August. During the workshop provided by the organisation, the students presented the findings derived from their research on countries like Iraq, Syria and Libya and interacted in in-depth discussions with the MEIA’s experts. It was an opportunity to interact with field experts and assess the validity of the analysis presented during the workshop.

Main Task Of The Project
The students were asked to divide in two groups and to develop strategic intelligence analysis related to the Syrian and Libyan crisis. Thus, the students applied the processes and methods of structured intelligence analysis to develop 5 years strategic forecast scenarios for the countries assigned. At the end of the project, the students had to deliver an intelligence report and to present their findings in front of a commission for evaluation.

Learning Outcomes Of The Summer University

By the end of this course students were able to:

  • Understand the main challenges of the intelligence analytical techniques and develop their own analytical method for intelligence analysis
  • Apply the analytical techniques learned during the Summer University to other fields beside intelligence
  • Develop a strong critical thinking in order to challenge and structure valid analysis
  • Use sophisticated and specific software and tools for the activities of intelligence collection, visualisation and scenario development
  • Develop their own project respecting the tasks submitted by the professors organising the team structure and the working plan
  • Delivering an intelligence report and present their findings to a customer (policy maker, private customer, director of an organisation) respecting his requests